Why Olive Oil Might Soon Become a Scarce Commodity
A few drops on a slice of garlic-rubbed toast, a splash to thicken a pistou or perfect a tapenade, a splash to season a Greek salad… olive oil promises an explosion of flavors—but for how long?
Its history is closely linked to that of the civilizations that have succeeded one another around the Mediterranean. The olive tree is believed to have appeared there in its wild form about fifteen thousand years ago, and the earliest evidence of its cultivation dates back to the Neolithic period on the borders of Syria and Palestine. It was not until Greco-Roman antiquity that olives—and their oil—became a staple of the diet.
Spain, Far Ahead
Even today, the main producers are located around the Mediterranean, from the Iberian Peninsula to the shores of the Aegean Sea, including Italy and North Africa. Among them, Spain supplies nearly half of the olive oil consumed worldwide. With 1.41 million metric tons in 2025, it is by far the world’s leading producer and top exporter, thanks to 2.5 million hectares of olive groves stretching across hillsides, particularly in the Andalusian province of Jaén, the cradle of olive oil on the peninsula.
After Spain, the rankings fluctuate depending on good and bad harvests. For the 2024–2025 season, Turkey, with 505,000 metric tons, takes second place. After long selling its olive oil in bulk to Spanish manufacturers, the country now aspires to capture greater value and become a key player in the global olive oil market.
By specializing in organic olive oil, Tunisia has quietly become, with 340,000 metric tons, the world’s third-largest producer and second-largest exporter. So much so that olive oil has become a tool of soft power: “It is now a major lever of European economic diplomacy in the Mediterranean. Under its association agreement, the European Union grants Tunisia preferential export quotas, aimed, above all, at supporting the country’s economic and social stability,” explains Laura Demurtas of Club Demeter, an agricultural think tank.
Next comes Greece (250,000 metric tons), whose production is primarily geared toward the domestic market, given that Greeks are heavy consumers; Italy (248,000 metric tons), whose olive oils often come from small family farms using traditional methods and are renowned for the diversity oftheir varieties andtheirquality; Portugal (177,000 metric tons) ; and Morocco (90,000 metric tons).
Withless than 5,000 metric tons, France produces barely 5 percent of what it consumes. “ Olive oil production in France has long been driven by artisanal mills, particularly in Provence, which are more focused onolive oil tourism than on large-scale industry development,”explains olive oil expert AlexisMuñoz. But here’s the thing. Climate change could quickly reshuffle the deck of this seemingly stable order. To see why, we need to look back a bit—to2022 and 2023, to be precise. Against a backdrop of heat waves and extreme drought at key stages in the olive tree’s life cycle, global olive oil production literally collapsed. In just two years,it lostnearly a quarter of its volume , dropping to 2.5 million metric tons— even though3 million metric tonsare needed ,on average,to meetglobal demand.
Soaring Prices
Theimpact on prices was felt almost immediately. At the wholesale market in Jaén, Spain, the price ofextra virgin olive oil more than doubled during those two years of drought, according to the International Olive Council (IOC). This surge was immediately reflected on store shelves. For consumers, the price tag is all the more steep given that olive oil is already five times more expensive than other vegetable oils. “On average ,onlyabout 15% of the olives’weight is extracted as oil, whereas 40% is obtained from rapeseed and sunflower, and 60% frompalm kernels,” explains Pascal Pinson, CEO of Costad’Oro, an Italian brand now part of the Avril Group.
In France,it’s a double whammy, asprices are 20% higher than in neighboring European countries. The blame lies with large retailers, which capture a larger share of the addedvalue here , according to Sébastien Abis, director of Club Demeter. “ “Even though we’ve lowered our suggested retail price over the past two years to €10.95 per liter,our olive oilstill ends up selling for €12per liter on store shelves,”laments Cynthia Riblet, marketing director at Puget (Avril Group). The last two years may have been better —production rebounded to 3.5 million metric tons in 2024/2025—butit’s clear thaton store shelves, prices—which have become a barrier for many consumers— have remained sky-high. It’s a bit like gasoline:when oil prices fall, the price at the pump rarely goes down.
Climate Change
The problem iswell known: the Mediterraneanbasin is warming 20% faster than the rest of the world and is severely lacking in water. Admittedly, theolive tree is adapted to this climate. But “excessively arid conditions and extreme temperatures severely affect its fruit production. And this stress can have delayed effects on production cycles in subsequent years ,”warns Alexis Muñoz.By 2050, agro-climatologists warn, southern Spain will become a steppe, or even a desert. In short, a region completely unsuitable for olive cultivation. Mediterraneanolive growers are relying on varietal research and agronomic practices in the hope of continuing to grow olive trees. For example , in Tuscania, in the Lazio regionnorth of Rome, theLe Amantine olive estate—where Marina Gioacchinicultivates 2,000 olive trees using agroecological methods—was spared in 2022 and2023: “We take special care with the annual pruning of the olive trees by expert hands—a fundamental factor for the tree’s health. But above all, the volcanic soil rich in pumice on which our olive trees grow—some of which were planted in 1936— is covered with grass.”
We know how much ground cover reduces runoff, increases thesoil’sorganic matter content, and limits biodiversity loss. In short,it also helps us become more resilient to climate change.Butlet’s not fool ourselves: adaptation alone will not be enough to save intensive olive cultivation in certain regions around the Mediterranean. “Ultimately, the olive industry will have no choice but to abandon entire swaths of cultivated land in search of a morefavorable climatefurther north ,”says agro-climatologist Serge Zaka. This is what scientists call the “shift in crop distribution ranges.” In Andalusia, already, people have begun uprooting century-old olive trees to install solar panels...
Beyond the Mediterranean Rim
In this context,Portugal stands out as an exception. The countryis banking heavily on its generally temperate climate to come out ahead. This is particularly true in the rolling plains of the Alentejo, irrigated by theAlqueva Dam. This advantage has not gone unnoticed by investors drawn to cheap land, easy access to capital, and abundant water. So much so that Spanish industrialists are beginning to buy plots of land in Portugal to diversify their supply sources. The olive oil productionarea has already begun to extend beyond the Mediterranean rim. “In southwestern France, the olive tree—which requires half as much water as corn—is already replacing field crops in some areas,”notes Serge Zaka. And in the rest of the world,olive cultivation now extends from Brazil to Canada, passing through Australia, Japan, Argentina, and Chile. “The olive tree adapts very well in the Southern Hemisphere, from Argentina to New Zealand, including South Africa. A variety from the foothills of the Andes— the Arauco, also known as Criolla—has even been recognized as endemic by the IOC, the only one to date outside the Mediterranean basin.Producers use modern mills andgenerally produceoils of excellentquality,”notes Emmanuelle Dechelette, an olive oil sommelier who regularly organizes competitions and masterclasses.
And let’s not forget China. Admittedly, production is modest for now—barely 15,000 metric tons during the last harvest—but the Middle Kingdom has grand ambitions for “green gold .” And history has taught usnever tounderestimateChina when it sets out to conquer a market.
