Why Olive Oil Might Soon Become a Scarce Commodity

Its history is closely linked to that of the civilizations that have succeeded one another around the Mediterranean. The olive tree is believed to have first appeared there in its wild form about fifteen thousand years ago, and the earliest evidence of its cultivation dates back to the Neolithic period on the borders of Syria and Palestine. It was not until Greco-Roman antiquity that olives—and their oil—became a staple of the diet.

Spain, Far Ahead

Even today, the main producers are found around the Mediterranean, from the Iberian Peninsula to the shores of the Aegean Sea, including Italy and North Africa. Among them, Spain supplies nearly half of the olive oil consumed worldwide. With 1.41 million metric tons in 2025, it is by far the world’s leading producer and exporter, thanks to 2.5 million hectares of olive groves stretching across hillsides, particularly in the Andalusian province of Jaén, the cradle of olive oil on the peninsula.

After Spain, the rankings fluctuate depending on good and bad harvests. For the 2024–2025 season, Turkey, with 505,000 metric tons, takes second place. After long selling its olive oil in bulk to Spanish manufacturers, the country now aspires to capture greater value and become a key player in the global olive oil market.

By specializing in organic olive oil, Tunisia has quietly become, with 340,000 metric tons, the world’s third-largest producer and second-largest exporter. So much so that olive oil has become a tool of soft power: “It is now a major lever of European economic diplomacy in the Mediterranean. As part of its association agreement, the European Union grants Tunisia preferential export quotas, aimed, above all, at supporting the country’s economic and social stability,” explains Laura Demurtas of Club Demeter, an agricultural think tank.

This article is excerpted from Gault&Millau magazine,^{issue no.} 14. It is available on the Gault&Millau e-shop.